Foreign fund inflows will keep surging, govt says

 Thursday, 25 November 2010

The Jakarta Post

Despite a recent increase in foreign capital outflow, the government is confident that the so-called hot money will keep entering Indonesia at least until 2011, Finance Minister Agus Martowardojo said Wednesday.

The minister said that even the growing tension in the Korean peninsula only had a minimal impact on the flow of the foreign capital into the country’s debt and stock markets.

“There was a sign of foreign capital reversal yesterday, but this will stabilize soon. The money will keep flooding into the developing countries. We estimate that the condition will remain like this until mid 2011,” Agus told reporters after an economic forum at Le Meridien Hotel in Jakarta.

Bank Indonesia (BI) deputy governor Budi Mulya said on the same day that the central bank was closely observing the impact of the tension in the Korean peninsula, especially in the “tradable sector like exports, as well as the money market”.

Asian stocks suffered substantial falls on Tuesday after North Korea fired dozens of artillery shells into South Korean waters. The price falls continued in several Asian markets including Indonesia on Wednesday.

Bank Indonesia said the withdrawal of foreign funds from the stock and debt markets reached a total of Rp 9 trillion (US$1 billion) over the last two weeks.

Agus’ estimate that foreign funds will continue to flow until the middle of next year is in line with the United States Federal Reserve System’s planned $600 billion economic stimulus, which will be phased in until June of 2011.

The stimulus, expected to add $75 billion per month additional money in circulation, will increase the global excess of liquidity seeking attractive returns in emerging markets, including Indonesia.

Agus said the government had been taking several measures to channel the capital inflows into productive sectors. “We encourage our state enterprises to go public or to launch rights issues. We also expect more investment,” he said.

The government and central bank have also expressed that they had been paying attention to impacts of the surging foreign influx. Both parties have disclosed their studies to guard against a potential reversal, including readying funds to buy back bonds and shifting the inflows to longer-dated instruments.

Budi has also stated that the foreign exchange reserves at the central bank would also be adequate to tackle outflows.

“As of now, our foreign exchange reserves stand at more than US$91 billion. It’s adequate if someday reversal occurs,” Budi told dozens of bankers at the forum.

Foreign exchange reserves have jumped to $92.9 billion up to Nov. 15, compared to the end of December 2009 at $50.6 billion.

BI recorded that foreign funds pumped into the debt and stock markets reached a total of Rp 125.39 trillion (US$13.96 billion) as of Nov. 19, this year. Of this total figure, as much as Rp 19.92 trillion went to BI’s promissory notes (SBI), Rp 85.25 trillion to government bonds (SUN), and Rp 20.23 trillion into equities.

The foreign holdings in SBI and SUN currently reach about 29.57 percent and 30.46 percent, respectively.

The increasing foreign funds have resulted in the rupiah’s appreciation, which has gained about 5 percent so far this year and was feared to hurt exports and negatively impact overall economic growth.


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