Common beliefs and RI's `intermestic' challenges( By:Bantarto Bandoro)

The public here is presented with three equally strong pairs of presidential and vice presidential candidates. We, however, will not see the result of the presidential election until after July 8. We will not even see whether there will be new policies until after the inauguration of the new government in October 2009.

Whoever is in command, the country will be seen as a "living organism" where it has to continually adapt to the changing environment. There will be "shared", if not mixed, beliefs as the new government proceeds with its new tasks.  The first is the belief that the country will constantly be moving toward a fully fledged democracy, regardless of who will be in command of the country. There is a belief in Indonesia's geopolitical importance as the largest country in Southeast Asia, as well as it being a vibrant democracy with the largest Muslim population.

The second belief is that the new government will do its utmost to protect the Indonesian economy from the impacts of the global financial crisis.  The third belief, derived from the public in general, points to possible "hostile" reactions of certain members of the international community toward the new government should, for example, the Megawati-Prabowo or Jusuf Kalla-Wiranto pair secure tickets to number one and two positions in the country. Prabowo and Wiranto were allegedly implicated for violations of human rights.

The fourth and final belief is that Indonesia needs to continue its international role despite the possibility of fresh domestic flash points that may result from the presidential election.  These beliefs will not only serve as parameters to judge where the country is heading, but also how the next government will deal with pressing issues, domestically and internationally, particularly because of the likely prolonged global financial crisis.

Those beliefs may change or may not change, depending on the feasibility and acceptability of their visions and concepts as well as the responsiveness of the new government over certain strategic issues and the perception of the public.  Those beliefs, though not all, will definitely have to be translated into policy actions if the new government is to avoid severe criticism from domestic and international audiences. This suggests that the next government will have to address intermestic (international and domestic) challenges in a way that reflects its sensitivity and alertness to policy issues that occur during its five-year term.

Jusuf Kalla recently appeared in a dialogue forum organized by the country's powerful business lobby, the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin), in what one could see was an attempt to introduce his economic agenda should he be elected as president. Here we see the relevance of the belief that the country should survive the global financial crisis by initiating fresh policy initiatives.

Perhaps it would be wise for the other presidential candidates to do the same thing as Kalla did if they wish to appear aligned with the public belief that continued and stable economic development will do no good for the country unless domestic stability and security is guaranteed.  No one can really predict what will become the most influential and strategic issues in the external environment of Indonesia after the 2009 presidential election. However, a global fight against pandemics, climate change and global efforts to curb the impact of world economic downturn, for example, will still definitely be on the international agenda.

There is a strong belief that Indonesian policies on these issues will not change, despite changes in the administration. In the next five years, however, the government will have to be even more active in initiating policies related to those issues. Perhaps, to balance between domestic and international needs is the biggest challenge for the next government amid unpredictable trends in global politics and economics.

Here is a need to inject foreign policy as an effective way to meet the country's future domestic needs. Whoever the "captain" will be, the next government should be aware that peace, stability and prosperity at home are also influenced by external developments and the government must try to influence those developments by mobilizing whatever resources are available. Here lies the relevance of the belief that resources play strategic roles in sustaining the country's economic development as well as its international role.

The presidential election takes place at a time of growing complexity, if not uncertainty, in our strategic environment, that is domestically polarized and globally divided as to how to tackle the financial crisis. But nothing would do better to accelerate the transition into the next phase of our development and reduce the cost of it than to achieve a general consensus at home on the direction of our future domestic and foreign policies.  Such a consensus, however, is unlikely unless the new government and public share a common belief that domestic stability and support for the country's future international role is effectively sought.